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WEEX Labs: Is the Much-Hyped “Supercycle” Finally Upon Us?

By: WEEX|2026-01-28 18:45:00
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“ABC: Anything But Crypto.”

As 2026 kicks off, this cynical mantra echoes through the trading floors. While gold and silver are in the pink, hitting record highs, Bitcoin is feeling blue, languishing near $90,000 in a sluggish retracement. Altcoins, meanwhile, are trapped in a seemingly endless sea of red.

Yet, against this backdrop of local despair, the elite at the Davos World Economic Forum are singing a different tune. The buzzword of the hour is the “Supercycle.” The argument? Regulatory thaws and mass adoption will soon act as a bulkhead against macro headwinds, ushering in a permanent bull market.

But what does this “Supercycle” actually entail? Is it a genuine paradigm shift, or just another high-octane narrative designed to part fools from their money?

 

Decoding the “Supercycle”

In the crypto lexicon, a “Supercycle” isn’t just a fancy term for a "pump." It refers to a prolonged expansionary phase driven by structural demand rather than fleeting hype—a cycle that lasts longer and climbs higher than anything we've seen before.

It marks crypto’s “coming of age,” moving from a fringe “digital experiment” to the “institutionalized” core of global financial infrastructure.

This isn't exactly a new vintage. In early 2021, Su Zhu (of the now-infamous Three Arrows Capital) championed the Supercycle theory, citing imminent mass adoption. Analysts like Dan Held echoed this, suggesting the 4-year halving cycle was merging with a larger 10-year macro wave. More recently, Murad Mahmudov ignited the “Meme Coin Supercycle” narrative, picking “winners” like SPX6900 to “mint billionaires.”

History shows that the “Supercycle” is often a marketing Trojan horse used to keep the party going. Is there any hard evidence that this time is actually different?
 

Breaking the "Four-Year Heartbeat": Why This Time Hits Different

For a decade, crypto lived by a rhythmic "heartbeat"—the four-year halving cycle (three years of green candles, one year of red ink). Today, many believe that rhythm is being replaced by a sustained roar. The logic? We’ve shifted from Supply Scarcity to Demand Explosion.

  • The Regulatory Green Light: The US SEC’s decision to scrub “Crypto Assets” from its 2026 priority risk list is a watershed moment. CZ views this pivot from “suppression” to “compliance” as the starting pistol for the Supercycle.
  • The Fundamental Facelift: Crypto is no longer just about “magic internet money.” With the globalization of stablecoins, prediction markets, and RWA (Real World Assets), the industry is merging with reality. Tom Lee argues that Ethereum is the poster child for this, evolving from “programmable money” into the “Global Settlement Layer.”
  • Wall Street’s "Manifest Destiny": In previous cycles, we relied on retail "moonboys." Now, the Old Guard is building the architecture. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink isn’t just interested in Bitcoin; he wants to tokenize every financial asset on earth. This sovereign-level buy-in carries more weight than any halving ever could.
  • The Interest Rate "Inverse Dividend": Paradigm’s Matt Huang offers a counter-intuitive take: the end of "free money" actually fueled the Stablecoin Supercycle. High interest rates allowed issuers to harvest massive yields, pumping liquidity back into the ecosystem’s veins.

 

The Real Alpha: A "Structural" Rather than "Universal" Supercycle

While the "Supercycle" debate lacks a total consensus, we believe the era of “a rising tide lifts all boats” is over. A universal, moon-shot rally for every token on the board is unlikely to return.

The reason is simple: Crypto has moved into the "Big House" (Institutionalization). The market is now tethered to the Fed’s whims, global liquidity, and geopolitical tremors. With the yen carry trade unwinding and Quantitative Tightening (QT) sucking the oxygen out of the room, a total market explosion is a tall order. We must also brace for the occasional “1011-style” deleveraging crash when the market gets too over-leveraged.

However, a Structural Supercycle is already underway. The "Alpha" of the next few years will be found in sectors with tangible utility:

  • The "Plumbing" Revolution (Stablecoins): Stablecoins have become the essential "pipes" of global finance. We expect over 100,000 payment systems to emerge, forcing traditional banks to overhaul their legacy stacks.
  • The Financialization of Information (Prediction Markets): Platforms like Polymarket (and Robinhood’s entry) are turning information into a tradable commodity. By pricing the probability of everything from elections to tech breakthroughs, they are becoming a multi-trillion-dollar gateway.
  • The AI-On-Chain Synergy: AI agents don’t have bank accounts; they have wallets. The demand for permissionless, automated settlement layers will provide a "utility floor" for the market that is far more durable than mere speculation.

The Supercycle is crypto’s Bar Mitzvah. It signals the dampening of wild volatility and the end of "easy mode" gains. The "ABC" noise is merely a transient fog. For those focusing on the builders and the infrastructure, the real cycle hasn't even reached its peak. The value will follow the utility. Stay tuned.


About Us

WEEX Labs is the research department established by WEEX exchange, dedicated to tracking and analyzing cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, and providing professional assessments.

We adhere to the principles of objectivity, independence, and comprehensiveness in our analysis. Our aim is to explore cutting-edge trends and investment opportunities through rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, providing the industry with comprehensive, rigorous, and clear insights, and offering all-round guidance for Web3 startups and investors in their development and investment.

Disclaimer

The views expressed herein are for informational purposes only and do not constitute endorsements of any discussed products or services, nor investment, financial, or trading advice. Readers should consult qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. Please note that WEEX Labs may restrict or prohibit all or part of its services in restricted jurisdictions.

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BTC Approaches $60K: Crypto Isn't Dead, It's Just Filtering the Noise

Macro disturbances, leverage collapses, and sluggish trading volumes are the hallmarks of every crypto bear market.

Let's temporarily step back from the AI bubble of June 2028 and focus on the crypto market in February 2026. Recently, BTC has fallen back to the $60K level, and the market is quiet and sluggish. We've reached another critical juncture where we should learn from history.

To truly grasp the "chill" in 2026, we first need to break down what happened during those "freezing moments" in previous bear markets.

The ICO Bubble Burst and Regulatory Winter of 2018

2018 marked a full year of the crypto market swinging from euphoric bull runs to a deep freeze bear phase. Bitcoin plummeted from its late — peak of nearly $20,000 to around $3,200 in 2017, with the overall market cap evaporating by over 80%. The industry went through the growing pains of shifting from wild speculation to more grounded buildings.

The key themes of this bear market were "liquidity drought and shattered faith."

The macro environment back then was brutally harsh:

- Global economic recovery was sluggish, and the Fed kicked off a rate-hike cycle, raising rates four times that year and ending with the federal funds rate at 2.25%-2.50%;

- China had already banned ICOs and exchanges the previous year, and in 2018, the U.S. SEC ramped up scrutiny and lawsuits, with many countries and regions following suit with their own bans.

At the same time, the massive wealth-creating ICO frenzy from 2017 finally popped, with hacks hitting platforms like Mt.Gox and Bitfinex fueling the panic. Many mining operations have been shut down in droves, and "blockchain is a scam" became the mainstream media's go-to narrative.

In terms of impact, this bear cycle wiped out over 95% of ICO projects, but as every cloud has a silver lining, it paved the way for the DeFi boom in the next bull run. Some institutions started dipping their toes into Bitcoin on a small scale.

The Leverage Meltdown and Rate-Hike Crisis of 2022

In 2022, Bitcoin tumbled from $69,000 to around $15,000, with the drop less severe than in 2018.

Compared to 2018, the 2022 bear market was also fueled by macro disruptions and a restructuring of the existing ecosystem.

Macros sucked up liquidity like a vacuum:

- Post- pandemic economies were dealing with persistent high inflation, and the Fed hiked rates seven times to 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fastest, largest, and most frequent dollar rate increases since 1982.

- Regulatory pressures escalated again, with the EU reaching key agreements on MiCA regulations, and the U.S. SEC tightening enforcement on stablecoins and exchanges.

Inside the crypto space, it was a chain reaction starting with the Terra/Luna algorithmic stablecoin collapse, which dragged down Celsius, Three Arrows, FTX, and others into bankruptcy. Sectors like NFTs, GameFi, and the metaverse fell into a deep slumber.

Even though the market turned chilly once more, long-term holders (LTH) started hitting record-high holdings, institutions like MicroStrategy ramped up their stakes dramatically, and the purge of CeFi ecosystems sped up the rise of self-custody, Layer2 solutions, and more.

In-depth compliance review in 2026

Heading into 2026, Bitcoin has broken below $80K, $70K, and $60K one after another. The Fear & Greed Index has spent a whopping 26 days in extreme fear territory over the past month, and Google searches for "Bitcoin is dead" have spiked to all-time highs—familiar bear market vibes making a comeback.

Compared to the past, the spread of market risks has intensified short-term sell-offs, but the underlying logic is a bit different:

- Even though we're in a mild rate-cutting phase right now, as we discussed in "Gold & Silver Hit New Highs, Is Bitcoin's Safe-Haven Narrative Losing Its Luster?", funds are flocking to gold and silver for shelter amid escalating sovereign debt crises, U.S. tariff trade wars, and potential threats to Fed independence. A certain number of crowds even reckon that AI has overtaken Web3 as the hot tech story, putting crypto right in the crosshairs.

- On the regulatory front, U.S. crypto policies have turned more friendly, but the odds of the CLARITY bill passing have taken a nosedive.

Of course, in this round of innovation narratives, we've seen a ton of high-funding, high-FDV infrastructure projects without real revenue keep tumbling. Narratives like Layer2, Restaking, and Memecoins have gone quiet, while the ETF story has ushered in an institution-dominated era. Right now, privacy, prediction markets, and stablecoins are still leading the pack.

If we look at volatility, as shown in the chart below, Bitcoin's 60-day average volatility has been trending downward year by year—a clear shift. Unlike the bubble bursts of 2018 or the leverage blowups of 2022, 2026 feels more like a weary adjustment. Although it was cold, it felt more like a mild winter.

While it's too early to call it the "market bottom", it's clear that the chill in 2026 isn't the dramatic crash of old bear cycles — more like a deep recalibration in this era of hyper-compliance.

For investors, the long-term upward potential in crypto markets far outweighs the downside risks. However, where will the next wave of narratives pivot to? As the proverb says, "Time will tell" — let's keep our eyes peeled.

 

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Register on WEEX and complete basic KYC verification Create your WEEX account and finish the basic identity verification process, which typically takes less than one minute to complete.Navigate to Buy USDT → P2P Trading From the main menu, enter the P2P trading section and select IDR as your preferred fiat currency.Apply the “GoPay” filter Enable the GoPay payment filter to view only those merchant advertisements that support GoPay bank transfers.Select the most suitable merchant Review and compare available merchants based on key indicators, including:Exchange priceOrder completion rateTotal trading volumeReal-time online statusEnter the amount you wish to purchase Input your desired USDT amount, and the system will automatically calculate and display the exact payable amount in IDR.Complete the payment via GoPay Transfer the displayed amount using GoPay, following the bank details provided by the selected merchant.Confirm payment and notify the seller Click “Transferred, Notify Seller” after completing the transfer. The seller will then verify your payment and promptly release the USDTcurrency to your WEEX account.

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0% buyer fees：Save 2–8% compared to competing platforms and maximize the value of every tradeFast release times ：Funds are typically released within 1–3 minutes, ensuring a smooth and efficient buying experienceOfficial escrow protection：Platform-managed escrow guarantees 100% transaction safetyFlexible trade sizes：Supports everything from small purchases to large-volume transactionsBest ARS exchange rates for Mercadopago users: Enjoy highly competitive pricing tailored for Mercadopago paymentsThousands of merchants online 24/7: Deep liquidity and constant availability at any time of dayMore Mercadopago ads than any competitor: Greater choice, faster matching, and higher deal completion rates

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How to Buy USDC with Mercadopago on WEEX P2P

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Register on WEEX and complete basic KYC verification Create your WEEX account and finish the basic identity verification process, which typically takes less than one minute to complete.Navigate to Buy USDC → P2P Trading From the main menu, enter the P2P trading section and select ARS as your preferred fiat currency.Apply the “Mercadopago” filter Enable the Mercadopago payment filter to view only those merchant advertisements that support Mercadopago Mercadopagos.Select the most suitable merchant Review and compare available merchants based on key indicators, including:Exchange priceOrder completion rateTotal trading volumeReal-time online statusEnter the amount you wish to purchase Input your desired USDC amount, and the system will automatically calculate and display the exact payable amount in ARS.Complete the payment via Mercadopago Transfer the displayed amount using Mercadopago, following the bank details provided by the selected merchant.Confirm payment and notify the seller Click “Transferred, Notify Seller” after completing the transfer. The seller will then verify your payment and promptly release the USDCcurrency to your WEEX account.

Your USDC will arrive instantly in your WEEX wallet — safe, fast, and with zero fees.

 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Are there any fees when paying with Mercadopago? A: 0% fee for buyers. Only sellers pay a small fee.

Q2: How fast will I receive USDC? A: Usually 1–5 minutes after marking payment as sent.

Q3: Is buying with Mercadopago safe on WEEX? A: Yes. All trades use official escrow.

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Compared with Binance, Bybit, and local OTC platforms, WEEX consistently offers better IDR exchange rates, safer escrow protection, and more available ads for GoPay users.

With more users turning to crypto, easy and secure access to digital assets is now a growing necessity. With WEEX P2P, users can buy USDT, BTC, or ETH via GoPay with instant processing, 0% buyer fees, and professional merchant support

 

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On WEEX P2P:

Crypto is held in escrowSellers release assets only after payment is confirmedTrades are processed quickly and safely

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0% buyer fees：Save 2–8% compared to competing platforms and maximize the value of every tradeFast release times ：Funds are typically released within 1–3 minutes, ensuring a smooth and efficient buying experienceOfficial escrow protection：Platform-managed escrow guarantees 100% transaction safetyFlexible trade sizes：Supports everything from small purchases to large-volume transactionsBest IDR exchange rates for GoPay users: Enjoy highly competitive pricing tailored for GoPay paymentsThousands of merchants online 24/7: Deep liquidity and constant availability at any time of dayMore GoPay ads than any competitor: Greater choice, faster matching, and higher deal completion rates

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How to Buy Crypto with GoPay on WEEX P2P

Buying crypto with GoPay on WEEX is simple and fast. Follow these steps:

Register on WEEX and complete basic KYC verification Create your WEEX account and finish the basic identity verification process, which typically takes less than one minute to complete.Navigate to Buy Crypto → P2P Trading From the main menu, enter the P2P trading section and select IDR as your preferred fiat currency.Apply the “GoPay” filter Enable the GoPay payment filter to view only those merchant advertisements that support GoPay bank transfers.Select the most suitable merchant Review and compare available merchants based on key indicators, including:Exchange priceOrder completion rateTotal trading volumeReal-time online statusEnter the amount you wish to purchase Input your desired crypto amount, and the system will automatically calculate and display the exact payable amount in IDR.Complete the payment via GoPay Transfer the displayed amount using GoPay, following the bank details provided by the selected merchant.Confirm payment and notify the seller Click “Transferred, Notify Seller” after completing the transfer. The seller will then verify your payment and promptly release the cryptocurrency to your WEEX account.

Your Crypto will arrive instantly in your WEEX wallet — safe, fast, and with zero fees.

 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Are there any fees when paying with GoPay? A: 0% fee for buyers. Only sellers pay a small fee.

Q2: How fast will I receive Crypto? A: Usually 1–5 minutes after marking payment as sent.

Q3: Is buying with GoPay safe on WEEX? A: Yes. All trades use official escrow.

Q4: Do I need full KYC? A: Basic KYC is required for P2P trading.

 

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What is P2P Trading?

Peer-to-Peer (P2P) trading allows users to buy and sell BTC directly with other users, while the platform acts as a secure intermediary.

On WEEX P2P:

BTC is held in escrowSellers release assets only after payment is confirmedTrades are processed quickly and safely

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Why WEEX P2P is the Best Choice for Mercadopago Users

WEEX P2P offers key advantages to users purchasing BTC with ARS via Mercadopago:

0% buyer fees：Save 2–8% compared to competing platforms and maximize the value of every tradeFast release times ：Funds are typically released within 1–3 minutes, ensuring a smooth and efficient buying experienceOfficial escrow protection：Platform-managed escrow guarantees 100% transaction safetyFlexible trade sizes：Supports everything from small purchases to large-volume transactionsBest ARS exchange rates for Mercadopago users: Enjoy highly competitive pricing tailored for Mercadopago paymentsThousands of merchants online 24/7: Deep liquidity and constant availability at any time of dayMore Mercadopago ads than any competitor: Greater choice, faster matching, and higher deal completion rates

Whether you’re buying 1,000 ARS or 1,000,000 ARS, WEEX ensures fast, safe, and cost-efficient BTC purchases.

 

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Are there any fees when paying with Mercadopago? A: 0% fee for buyers. Only sellers pay a small fee.

Q2: How fast will I receive BTC? A: Usually 1–5 minutes after marking payment as sent.

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What is P2P Trading?

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On WEEX P2P:

ETH is held in escrowSellers release assets only after payment is confirmedTrades are processed quickly and safely

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Why WEEX P2P is the Best Choice for Mercadopago Users

WEEX P2P offers key advantages to users purchasing ETH with ARS via Mercadopago:

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Your ETH will arrive instantly in your WEEX wallet — safe, fast, and with zero fees.

 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Are there any fees when paying with Mercadopago? A: 0% fee for buyers. Only sellers pay a small fee.

Q2: How fast will I receive ETH? A: Usually 1–5 minutes after marking payment as sent.

Q3: Is buying with Mercadopago safe on WEEX? A: Yes. All trades use official escrow.

Q4: Do I need full KYC? A: Basic KYC is required for P2P trading.

 

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