Bitget UEX Daily Report | Tech Giants' Earnings Shine but Accelerating Cash Burn Sparks Market Divergence; US-Iran Tensions Drive Up Oil Prices and Rate Hike Expectations; Gold and Silver Strengthen (July 23, 2026)

1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

US-Iran Tensions Drive Up Oil Prices, September Rate Hike Probability Approaches 80%

US President Trump threatened that if Iran fires on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US will bomb and destroy Iranian bridges or power plants; the Iranian military responded by stating it will firmly exercise sovereignty and will not allow the strait to become a tool of threat.

International crude oil futures settled sharply higher, reaching a one-month high; the CME "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates at least once before the September meeting is nearing 80%.

Market Impact: Rising oil prices exacerbate inflation concerns, reinforcing hawkish expectations, temporarily suppressing risk asset valuations while supporting demand for the dollar and gold as safe havens.

International Commodities

Oil Surges Due to Geopolitical Risks, Precious Metals Strengthen Simultaneously

Stimulated by the harsh exchanges between the US and Iran, both WTI and Brent crude oil saw significant gains.

Spot gold and silver benefited from safe-haven sentiment and a slight retreat of the dollar, both rising.

Market Impact: Rising energy costs may transmit downstream, increasing uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's policy path, and commodity market volatility may remain high.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump Warns of Possible Government Shutdown in September; Bank of Japan Open to Accelerated Rate Hikes

Trump stated in a speech in Georgia that due to disagreements over spending priorities between the two parties, the federal government may face a shutdown in September; the House of Representatives has passed a short-term funding bill until December 4, while the Senate is still negotiating.

Sources indicate that the continued weakening of the yen increases inflation risks, and Bank of Japan officials are open to "hiking rates faster than the market generally expects," but the July 31 meeting is likely to maintain rates unchanged.

Market Impact: Increased uncertainty in US fiscal policy and flexibility in Japanese policy may lead to fluctuations in global capital flows, temporarily benefiting the safe-haven attributes of dollar assets.

2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

Spot Gold: $4130.99/oz, -0.02%
Spot Silver: $59.72/oz, +0.08%
WTI Crude Oil: ~$87.9/barrel, +1.21%
Brent Crude Oil: ~$95.55/barrel, +1.57%
Dollar Index (DXY): 101.09, -0.03%

Driving Factors Analysis: The US-Iran tensions directly pushed up oil prices, with traders concerned that rising energy prices will increase consumer goods inflation, thereby reinforcing expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September. Gold and silver benefited from geopolitical safe-haven demand, coupled with a slight retreat of the dollar index, resulting in a correlated rise. In the short term, if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate, oil prices are likely to remain high, further suppressing risk appetite; if tensions ease, commodity gains may quickly reverse. Institutions generally believe that the current commodity market is highly sensitive to geopolitical premiums and that subsequent statements from the US and Iran should be closely monitored.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC: ~$66,199, -0.66%
ETH: ~$1,937, -0.03%
Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: ~$2.33 trillion, -0.5%

Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24 hours was about $183 million, with long positions liquidated at $106 million.

Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price is about $66,153, with a large number of short liquidation orders concentrated in the range of $66,700–$67,500. If it breaks through $66,500, it may trigger a series of short liquidations, leading to a short-term accelerated upward trend. Long liquidations are mainly concentrated in the $65,300–$64,500 area, but the liquidation pressure is weaker than above, thus the current liquidation structure still leans towards sweeping short liquidity upwards.

Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $203 million yesterday, with a current 24-hour dynamic net inflow of $30 million, marking seven consecutive days of net inflow.

Driving Factors Analysis: On a macro level, the US-Iran tensions and rising rate hike expectations are suppressing risk assets, leading to a pullback in BTC. ETF inflows have significantly slowed, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment among institutions. The scale of leveraged liquidations is controllable, with no large-scale crashes occurring. Technically, BTC is still oscillating around $66,000, with clear divergence between bulls and bears. The progress of the Clarity Act legislation (prohibiting the president and federal officials from issuing digital assets) has sparked discussions about the pace of regulatory implementation, which may increase volatility in the short term. The overall trend remains dominated by macro factors and capital flows, with ETH showing slightly stronger resilience than BTC.

US Stock Index Performance

Dow Jones: 52,218.58 points (-0.01%), nearly flat, defensive attributes evident
S&P 500: 7,498.96 points (-0.14%), slightly lower, weighted stocks dragging
Nasdaq: 25,690.90 points (-0.57%), tech stocks generally under pressure

Tech Giants Dynamics

NVDA: $212.06 (+2.30%)
AAPL: $325.89 (-0.56%)
MSFT: $390.34 (-1.86%)
GOOGL: $342.09 (-1.46%)
AMZN: $244.85 (-1.09%)
META: $627.17 (-2.58%)
TSLA: $374.01 (-1.30%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.44% against the trend, led by Nvidia and Broadcom, reflecting strong demand for AI infrastructure. However, the software and application sectors showed significant weakness, with Palantir down over 6% and Salesforce down over 4%. Despite Alphabet and Tesla's post-market earnings being impressive, concerns over significantly increased capital expenditures and negative cash flow have intensified market worries about the speed of "burning cash," leading to increased stock differentiation. Overall, the sector exhibits characteristics of "hardware AI benefiting, software and some consumer electronics under pressure," with valuation and cash flow becoming the core of investor repricing.

Sector Movement Observation

Application Software Sector Drops Over 3%

Representative Stocks: Palantir down 6.1%, Salesforce down 4.15%

Driving Factors: Market tolerance for high-valuation growth stocks has decreased in the context of rising rate hike expectations, coupled with some companies' guidance falling short of expectations.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Rises 0.44%

Representative Stocks: Nvidia up 2.3%, Broadcom up 2.67%

Driving Factors: Continued demand for AI computing power and data center construction, with giants like OpenAI raising spending expectations providing support.

3. In-Depth Analysis of US Stocks

Alphabet - Cloud Business Exceeds Expectations but Cash Flow Turns Negative

Event Overview: Q2 revenue and earnings both exceeded expectations, with Google Cloud achieving the strongest growth in recent quarters and backlog orders reaching $514 billion. The company raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $195-205 billion to accelerate AI computing power expansion. For the first time in history, negative free cash flow was reported, leading to a post-market stock price drop of over 3%.
Market Interpretation: Institutions recognize the progress of cloud business and AI implementation, but express caution over the significant increase in capital expenditures and deteriorating cash flow, fearing an extended return cycle.
Investment Insight: The AI investment race has entered a heated phase, and the quality of cash flow will be key to pricing in the next stage.

Tesla - Revenue Exceeds Expectations but Profitability Deteriorates, Cash Flow Turns Negative

Event Overview: Q2 revenue was $28.236 billion, a 26% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations; automotive revenue was $20.516 billion. Profitability suffered due to declining average selling prices and promotions, with capital expenditures falling short of targets and cash flow turning negative. The company emphasized that it is in the phase of maximum investment.
Market Interpretation: Strong deliveries are affirmed, but pressures on profit margins and cash flow lead investors to reassess the pace of investment in robotics and autonomous driving.
Investment Insight: Balancing sales and profitability remains a core contradiction, and attention should be paid to the subsequent path of gross margin improvement.

Texas Instruments - Revenue and Guidance Both Exceed Expectations

Event Overview: Q2 revenue was $5.46 billion, exceeding expectations; Q3 guidance of $5.65-6.15 billion also surpassed market expectations. Industrial, data center, and automotive businesses led the growth, with total shareholder returns of about $5.8 billion for the year.
Market Interpretation: The recovery in demand for analog chips is confirmed by institutions, with data centers and automotive becoming new growth engines.
Investment Insight: The coexistence of cyclical recovery and structural demand provides a relatively safe margin for valuation.

ServiceNow - Strong Subscription Growth, Explosive AI Agent Deployment

Event Overview: Q2 revenue was $3.987 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase; subscription revenue grew by 24.5%. Remaining performance obligations reached $29 billion, with AI agent deployments growing ninefold in nine months.
Market Interpretation: Demand for enterprise software and cybersecurity remains robust, and the effectiveness of AI implementation is recognized.
Investment Insight: High-quality recurring revenue and AI monetization capabilities support long-term growth logic.

IBM - Slight Revenue Growth but Guidance Downgraded

Event Overview: Q2 revenue was $17.2 billion, a 1% year-on-year increase; adjusted EPS fell short of expectations. The full-year revenue growth guidance was downgraded from "over 5%" to "4%-5%", with a significant decline in mainframe business.
Market Interpretation: The software business is stable, but hardware drag is evident, and the guidance downgrade raises caution.
Investment Insight: The transformation process still requires time for validation, and attention should be paid to the speed of software's share increase.

4. Market & Project Dynamics

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1. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, pointed out that the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market may have formed. He believes Bitcoin has "matured" into a macro asset, with prices driven by macro factors such as real interest rates and economic growth, rather than the four-year halving cycle. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets correspond with economic slowdowns and rising real interest rates, and the current macro backdrop is similar to the past. If the Federal Reserve abandons rate hikes and the economy remains strong, Bitcoin prices may have already bottomed.

2. Alphabet, Google's parent company, announced its Q2 earnings for the fiscal year 2026 on July 22 local time. The company achieved revenue of $119.8 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, exceeding market expectations; GAAP operating profit was $40.8 billion, a 30% year-on-year increase, with an operating profit margin rising to 34%; GAAP EPS was $9.11, exceeding market expectations. Notably, the net profit for the quarter was significantly boosted by investment income (including fair value changes of certain equity investments).

3. Tesla maintained its Bitcoin holdings unchanged in the second quarter, still holding 11,509 BTC, continuing a record of not buying or selling Bitcoin for nearly four years. Due to Bitcoin's drop from about $83,000 to $58,000 during the quarter, Tesla reported a $112 million after-tax impairment loss on its digital asset holdings.

4. Apple plans to upgrade its entire Mac lineup, including iMac, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, Mac mini, and Mac Studio, this fall to meet the growing demand for AI computing. Reports indicate that Apple will launch an entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro featuring the new M6 chip, as well as the first update to the iMac in two years, and will release high-end 14/16-inch MacBooks with OLED touch screens and M5 Pro/M5 Max chips by the end of this year or early next year. The company is also developing new MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, and OLED iMac models featuring M7 series chips, and upgrading the entry-level MacBook Neo with A19 Pro chips and memory configurations. Currently, demand for Mac mini and Mac Studio in AI application scenarios is strong, with delivery times for some models extended to three months, and supply shortages are also affecting the launch pace of new models.

5. Sui officially announced that its Bitcoin cross-chain solution Hashi, announced in March this year, is now live on the testnet, allowing users to use native BTC as programmable collateral on Sui without needing to transfer BTC out of the Bitcoin mainnet. The official stated that Hashi employs a 2-of-2 multi-signature mechanism through the Guardian Layer, with Hashi validators and independent guardians jointly signing to manage BTC pledged assets.

6. OpenAI is expanding the scale of its data centers and increasing its spending budget in this area. According to sources, OpenAI has raised its forecast for computing power spending by 2030 from about $600 billion earlier this year to about $750 billion.

7. Anthropic will begin purchasing up to 2 gigawatts of AMD's latest generation chips (named Instinct MI450) in the first half of 2027.

5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

To be determined: US related employment and inflation data observation ⭐⭐⭐
Evening: Possible speeches by Japanese central bank officials ⭐⭐⭐

Important Event Forecast

July 23 (Thursday)

American Airlines, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, Nokia, and Raytheon Technologies will announce earnings before the US stock market opens.
★★★★★ Intel will release its earnings after the market closes, focusing on chip demand and AI-related prospects;

July 24 (Friday)

★★★★ Trump will attend the White House Correspondents' Association dinner, and his speech may impact the market; ★★★★ AMD will hold the Advancing AI conference, with CEO Lisa Su delivering a speech discussing AI agents, model optimization, etc.

Institutional Views:

In the past 24 hours, US stocks have slightly declined against the backdrop of rising oil prices and heightened rate hike expectations, with significant differentiation in tech stocks. Institutions generally believe that the earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla validate the demand for AI and electric vehicles, but the negative capital expenditures and cash flow have led to market divergence regarding the return cycle. The surge in oil prices due to geopolitical risks has reinforced hawkish pricing, with gold and silver benefiting from safe-haven demand. The cryptocurrency market, on the other hand, is experiencing fluctuations due to regulatory legislative expectations and macro pressures. Overall, the short-term market will seek a balance between the "long-term narrative of AI" and "short-term policies and geopolitical risks," with funds more inclined towards targets with clear paths for cash flow improvement.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text inevitably contains deviations; please refer to real-time market data.