Analysis: The potential agreement between the US and Iran, along with Strategy's increased investment in Bitcoin, may drive Bitcoin back above $80,000

Cryptocurrency analyst Marcel Pechman stated that after Bitcoin's failure to break above $82,000, it faced selling pressure and is once again testing the $76,000 level. In four days, the scale of long position liquidations reached $400 million, with prices dropping about 7% from recent highs. Nevertheless, analysts believe that the conditions for Bitcoin to return to $80,000 are accumulating, with three potential catalysts worth noting.

First, Strategy (MSTR) invested $2 billion in Bitcoin over the past week, providing effective support amid market pressure. At the same time, the company repurchased $1.5 billion of convertible bonds maturing in 2029, and repaying part of its senior debt in advance helps reduce future dilution risks for existing MSTR shareholders, creating space for subsequent new stock issuance and continued Bitcoin purchases.

Second, on a macro level, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose to 4.6%, a 16-month high, as investor confidence gradually shifts towards scarce assets. In 2026, $2 trillion in long-term debt will mature, and the Federal Reserve may need to continue purchasing bonds, which will further weaken the dollar's attractiveness. Gold saw a significant rise this January but has since given back most of its gains, while Bitcoin rebounded from $65,000 to $76,500 during the same period, indicating an increasing recognition of its safe-haven properties in the market.

Third, if the situation in Iran sees a turnaround, risk appetite is expected to recover quickly. On Monday, Brent crude oil prices rose to $113, with negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz experiencing fluctuations; since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February, oil prices have cumulatively risen over 50%. If an agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, a drop in energy prices will alleviate inflationary pressures, and Bitcoin is expected to return above $80,000. Currently, U.S. stocks are close to historical highs, while Bitcoin is still down about 39% from its peak.