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The prediction on Polymarket of "Musk creating a new political party by the end of this year" is currently at 42%.
BlockBeats News, July 4th, according to official website data, the probability on Polymarket of predicting "Musk to create a new political party by the end of this year" is reported as 42%; on Kalshi, the probability of predicting "Musk to create a new political party within this year" is currently at 35%.
Musk stated on July 1st that if the "Beautiful Bill" is passed, he will establish a new political party in the United States the next day. Trump's "Beautiful Bill" was passed by the House of Representatives this morning and will be signed at 5 am on Saturday.
In addition, Musk initiated a poll on social media on June 6th: "Is it time to create a new political party in the United States that truly represents the middle 80% group?" The poll results showed that 5,630,775 users participated, with 80.4% of users choosing to support.
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