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Prominent Investor: Cryptocurrency 4-Year Cycle Top Emerges, US Stock Market AI Bubble to Drive Ups and Downs
BlockBeats News, November 14th - Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao recently posted on social media, stating that despite macro factors such as Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE), US Treasury General Account (TGA) rebuild, and interest rate cuts pointing to a market rally, intuitively "everything has come to an end." QwQiao described crypto as a "self-fulfilling asset class," emphasizing the inevitability of the four-year cycle prophecy, putting the market at a frustrating crossroads. As a long-time optimist, he has been feeling uneasy about the crypto market since mid-September, noting that most savvy traders and long-term investors have turned bearish.
Shifting focus to the US stock market, QwQiao sees artificial intelligence (AI) as the "sole factor" of the dominant cycle, far exceeding liquidity indicators and technical signals. He warned that if the AI bubble bursts, the entire market will collapse; conversely, if AI-related stocks continue to rise, the bears will be completely wrong. He compares NVIDIA to Bitcoin in crypto, noting that when AI stocks (especially NVIDIA) rise, funds flow out of assets like crypto, causing a decline, and vice versa, forming a binary scenario of "AI Stocks vs. Everything Else."
In a specific sector, QwQiao is bullish on the growth momentum of stablecoin startups, believing it far surpasses the speed of AI startups, mainly due to the scarcity of the stablecoin market competition, while the AI vertical has over 50 players. This year, his stock market investment return has significantly outperformed crypto, and he has not ventured into high-growth but inefficient AI stocks, instead favoring "quality companies at a reasonable price."
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