Goldman Sachs Recommends Simplifying U.S. Stock Positions and Investing in Gold
Goldman Sachs' head of hedge fund business, Tony Pasquariello, stated that there is currently significant internal divergence in the U.S. stock market, with high volatility in momentum factors, making market operations extremely challenging. He advises investors to simplify their portfolios and concentrate risk on the positions they are most confident in. Although the S&P 500 index has limited overall volatility, the gap between individual stock and index implied volatility continues to widen, indicating that demand for single-stock options and market dispersion trading remains high. Pasquariello has turned positive on gold, believing that a large number of speculative long positions have been cleared since 2026, and central bank purchases of gold have restarted, with gold prices repeatedly finding support around $4,000. While rising U.S. interest rates and a strengthening dollar may pose short-term pressure, this provides an opportunity for investors to build structural long positions at lower prices, with the long-term logic based on the continued rise in global government debt burdens. In terms of AI, related credit supply has reached $489 billion this year, with major spenders continuing to expand investments, but the market needs to confirm whether the massive AI capital expenditures can translate into revenue growth. Pasquariello also pointed out that rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and the situation in Iran could exacerbate volatility in U.S. stocks, with Brent crude oil having risen 33% this month.
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