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Goldman Sachs Previews Non-Farm Payrolls: Data Needs to Be "Substantially Surprising" to Shake Up Fed's Rate Cut Expectations for April
BlockBeats News, January 9th, Goldman Sachs stated that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025, set to be released Friday evening, is unlikely to substantially alter market expectations for the Fed's policy, unless there is a significant unexpected outcome, as current market pricing has solidly anchored on the path of easing policy starting in mid-year.
In a research report to clients, Goldman Sachs expects the non-farm payroll employment to increase by about 70,000, in line with general expectations. Despite unofficial market "whisper numbers" implying a slight upside risk, the bank believes that a result close to expectations would reinforce rather than disrupt the existing macroeconomic narrative.
The market is currently pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the first 25-basis-point cut expected around late April.
Goldman Sachs stated that labor data would need to show a "fairly dramatic" upside or downside surprise to significantly bring forward or push back this timing.
From a market perspective, Goldman Sachs views non-farm payroll data in the range of 70,000 to 100,000 as the most favorable outcome for the stock market, aligning with a scenario of continued economic expansion that neither reignites inflation concerns nor threatens the rate-cutting cycle. Such a result would support the view that the U.S. economy is gradually slowing rather than abruptly stalling.
In contrast, non-farm payroll data below 50,000 would be interpreted as below the level of job growth estimates needed to sustain economic stability, potentially unsettling investors by raising concerns about a sharp growth slowdown.
On the other extreme, Goldman Sachs stated that if the data exceeds 125,000, it may prompt the market to reassess the timing of the Fed's first rate cut, pushing back the expected rate cut to June. (FXStreet)
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