Analysis: The Bitcoin bear market has entered its later stage, with $64,000 being an important support level
According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has once again fallen below $70,000, with multiple on-chain and technical indicators showing that the current bear market is entering its later stages.
In terms of on-chain data, Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has dropped below 0.25, placing it in the "hope/fear zone." CryptoQuant analyst The Enigma Trader pointed out that this means about 40% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is in a state of loss, compounded by the Fear and Greed Index falling to 15, indicating "extreme fear," which "reflects pain and uncertainty." He added that if NUPL rises above 0.25, it will mark the entry into the optimistic zone, a transition that historically often coincides with an increase in price momentum.
Glassnode stated that the 7-day moving average of relative unrealized losses has stabilized at 15%, noting that "historically, resolving this level of embedded losses requires time, further price declines, or a sustained influx of fresh capital within a compressed timeframe." Additionally, Bitcoin's entity-adjusted realized profit has fallen from a peak of $3 billion per day in July 2025 to now less than $100 million, a decline of over 96%. Glassnode described this as "further evidence of demand exhaustion" and a "textbook characteristic of the transition to the later stages of a bear market."
In terms of key price levels, Bitcoin has recently been in a range-bound consolidation, with support at $64,000 and resistance at $72,000. Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is struggling to hold the 1-week to 1-month cost basis of $70,200, but the accumulation of buy orders at this level is not robust enough, making "the probability of breaking below this level non-negligible" until more solid buying support is established. The main support below is referenced at Bitcoin's realized price of about $54,000; the upper resistance is at the 1 to 3-month cost basis of $82,200, as well as a dense area of short-term positions above $84,000.
Technical analyst CryptoPatel stated that Bitcoin's recent rise to $76,000 is merely a lower high, and the higher time frame structure "points to lower," with below $50,000 being the next truly noteworthy area to watch.
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